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First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP and real GDI, but use a range of other indicators as well.Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology.The NBER business-cycle chronology considers economic activity, which grows along an upward trend.

We identify a month when the economy reached a peak of activity and a later month when the economy reached a trough.For example, in the recovery beginning in March 1991, the unemployment rate continued to rise for 15 months after the trough. In the current recovery, the lag was only 4 months, from the trough in activity in June 2009 to the highest level of the unemployment rate in October 2009.Q: What data from the National Income and Product Accounts are used in the calculation of real personal income less transfers? Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm, prepares estimates of monthly real GDP.A: Personal income comes from Table 2.6 of the National Income and Product Accounts, less personal current transfer receipts from the same table, deflated by a monthly interpolation of the price index for gross domestic product, NIPA Table 1.1.9. The committee also considered new estimates of monthly real GDP and GDI constructed by two committee members, James Stock and Mark Watson (available here).Many of the ingredients of the quarterly GDP figures are published at a monthly frequency by government agencies.

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